this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2026
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Chinese open-source models are becoming the norm. You don't need the latest model from ChatGPT (e.g., a Ferrari) to complete your task. A simple Honda will suffice (open-source models), and it uses a lot less energy since it runs on your home or company's infrastructure.
Because of that, I predict that we're going to see a lot of financial hardship among AI companies.
A CPU-cycle requires energy no matter where it is. The open source models may be more efficient, or you may distribute the power usage over a greater geographical area. But you're not using less energy because you're running the model at home.
I do like the idea that open source will kill tech giants.
You are correct. OpenAI etc. valuations are based on the difference between revenue and cost. The key part is that open source breaks the monopoly. It stops excessive rent being charged (now or in the future) to use Ai models.
Tech giants will still exist, but closed model advantages won't.
i thought tech valuations were based off of vibes and social currency
Initially maybe. Long term, money has to be returned.