this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2026
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I think your take is completely reasonable but I think the 'first to 100 million users' is actually noteworthy because if they can become entrenched and people become unwilling to learn anything else, they've won and can charge nearly whatever the fuck they want (at least in the medium term). See Microsoft and Adobe. They charge whatever they want for their subscription programs because what else are you going to do, use GIMP? Even in situations where the FLOSS alternative is legitimately good, a lot of people will still refuse to switch. I don't think Anthropic can survive long enough for them to become the only thing Susan from HR knows or is willing to use, but I think there's a path to profit somewhere here.
There’s nothing to “learn”. Using one of these is in no way different than using the other.
Unless you start using fancy little features that let you do things the others don’t do quite as well.
No, because any cool feature will be immediatelly replicated everywhere.
This isn't a real product. Just bullshit generator.
That’s not exactly true. The implementation details around context management matter to the user a use case. It’s totally feasible for providers to go into different directions, especially if they’re hoping to target different subsections of the same market.