this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2026
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Technology
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Some company in China just duplicated ASMLs shtick, didn’t they ?
Yes and no. It'll still take many years to get to the same level. ASML has a huge head start
This feels again a bit dismissive. My whole life I have heard "it is okay, China is years away from doing any catch up, unlikely anything happens" and then China proceeds to catch up every. Single. Time.
if China has replicated the technology, then that is fucked for ASML and any headstart they have will not feel like one in 5 years when suddenly China speeds past with cheaper and better tech.
I hope ASML won't just sit idle and will instead double the effort into making sure the lead they have stays that way.
most recent one I can remember was "Chinese cars are years away from quality and safe cars of western countries who have a massive headstart" recently also been hearing that about memory production.
Picture is more complicated as far as I understand.
China caught up to ASML. Not fully. Huawei even proceeded to propose innovation with vertical stacking and overall different chip designs.
Fine and dandy.
Machines ASML sell now took a fuck ton of time to even get to demo state.
Where this gets complicated, ASML is years into developing new generation machines, that will further chip design and production. In different materials than silicone.
And whether China will or can catch up to this is another question. Whether ASML delivers, is another one.
This is space race, but they are racing to different planets. All at the same time.
Painting this as A catching up to B appears extrimely simplistic.